Rafael Behr, The Guardian, December 23, 2014
The digital revolution has made politics faster and noisier, but in 2014 surface volatility masked underlying stasis. It has been a year of big news and small change. Sudden transformations in politics are rare. The safest prediction of what will happen next is… it will look a lot like what is happening now. This was famously demonstrated in a 20-year study of political forecasting in the US by the Canadian academic Philip Tetlock. […read more]